Effects of Governmental Policies in Banking Industry by using Fuzzy DEMATEL
Hasan Dinçer and Serhat Yüksel
The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of the governmental policies in the banking industry. For this purpose, a detailed literature review is conducted, and 5 different governmental policies are identified. Furthermore, these policies are weighted by using fuzzy DEMATEL approach. The findings indicate that the most important government implementation regarding the banking industry is related to the risk policy. This shows that governments should make necessary regulations related to the management of different risk types of the banks, such as credit, market and operational risks. Therefore, it is recommended that governments should make necessary regulations for risk management activities of the banks and follow the banks to understand whether they take these actions or not. Hence, it becomes possible to improve the performance of the banking industry.
Keywords: Governmental Policies; Banking Industry; Fuzzy DEMATEL
Bu çalışmanın amacı, bankacılık sektöründeki devlet politikalarının etkilerini değerlendirmektir. Bu amaçla, ayrıntılı bir literatür taraması yapılmış ve 5 farklı devlet politikası belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca bu politikalar bulanık DEMATEL yaklaşımı kullanılarak ağırlıklandırılmıştır. Ortaya çıkan bulgular, bankacılık sektörüne ilişkin en önemli devlet uygulamasının risk politikası ile ilgili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu durum, hükümetlerin, kredi, piyasa ve operasyonel riskler gibi bankaların farklı risk türlerinin yönetimi ile ilgili gerekli düzenlemeleri yapması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, hükümetlerin bankaların risk yönetimi faaliyetleri için gerekli düzenlemeleri yapmaları ve bu önlemleri alıp almadıklarını anlamak için bankaları takip etmeleri önerilmektedir. Böylelikle bankacılık sektörünün performansını artırmak mümkün hale gelecektir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devlet politikaları; Bankacılık Sektörü; Fuzzy DEMATEL
The banking sector is the lifeblood for national economies. There are many reasons behind this issue. Some people and companies living in a country have more money in comparison with the others. Banks borrow this extra amount from these persons for a certain period of time. When the due date comes, banks pay extra to these borrowers. In other words, with the help of the banks, these people have the chance to earn interest income by using their savings. On the other hand, a significant majority of the companies in the country need money for new investments (Buil et al., 2016; Kosmidouet et al., 2017). However, since this amount can be very high, it is often difficult to obtain (Yüksel & Kavak, 2019). For this purpose, banks provide credit to these companies as much as they need and contribute to the solution of this problem.
Due to these important issues, the high performance of banks is also important for the national economy. On the other hand, there are certain risks that banks face in their operations. For example, banks may not be able to take back loans from customers. This is referred to as credit risk in the literature. Banks should take some precautions to prevent this risk. A detailed analysis of the financial situation of the customers to be loaned will prevent banks from lending to the wrong customers. On the other hand, market risk is another issue that may affect the performance of banks. This risk mainly consists of problems arising from interest rate, stock exchange index and exchange rate volatility (Karimalis & Nomikos, 2018; Cegarra-Navarro et al., 2019). In addition to the aforementioned issues, there is another type of risk in the literature under the name of operational risk. Natural disasters, theft, terrorist attacks and personnel-related problems are examples of this topic.
In addition to these issues, government policies are also considered to affect the performance of banks. Depending on the types of policies they implement, this effect can be either negative or positive. In this context, if the policies implemented by the governments are narrowing the trade volume in the country, these policies will naturally affect the performance of the banks negatively (Schimmelfennig, 2016). For example, the increase in tax rates will reduce the profitability of firms. As a result, these companies will be reluctant to make new investments. In this process, the performance of the banks with decreasing loan amount will go down (Zayernyuk et al., 2015). On the other hand, if governments reduce their tax rates, trade volume in the country will increase. This will affect the profitability of banks positively.
In addition to tax rates, governments may influence the performance of banks through other practices. In this context, legal regulations may have an impact on banks. In some cases, governments may impose restrictions on certain activities of banks by enacting new laws. For example, governments can impose an upper limit on banks’ consumer loans with a new law. In this case, the profitability of banks will be significantly reduced as banks will not be able to extend new loans to retail customers. Moreover, a new law may also prohibit certain fees charged by banks (Verhoest et al., 2015). Since this will eliminate the banks’ important source of income, the profit margin of banks may be significantly reduced.
Furthermore, governments can increase the supervision of the banking sector with new laws. Within this framework, as a result of a new law, it may become necessary for banks to have both internal audit and internal control departments at the same time (Al-Janadi et al., 2016). In this case, the staff of two different departments will periodically check the activities of the other departments of the banks. Additionally, this new law may require banks to be subject to external audit. The controls to be carried out by another audit firm will contribute to the detection of the problems in banks in advance. Besides, a new law can increase the control power of state institutions. All these issues will ensure periodic audits of banks’ activities (Naushad & Malik, 2015). As a result of this, it will be possible to identify the important problems that banks may experience early and to take necessary measures for this.
In this study, the impact of government policies on the banking sector will be analyzed. In this context, the question of what kind of government policies affect the banking sector more will be sought. In the first phase of the analysis process, a broad literature review will be conducted and the types of government policies that may affect the banking sector will be identified. Then, in the second stage of the analysis process, the importance weights of these identified types of government policies will be calculated. In this process, fuzzy DEMATEL method will be considered. The results of the analysis will allow us to understand what kind of government policies affect the banking sector more.
It is possible to mention two important contributions of this study to the literature. First, the types of government policy that may have an impact on the banking sector are identified in this study. In this process, the studies searched in numerous international indices in the literature were examined. These factors, which are determined as a result of this extensive examination, are considered to be guiding both for academics and market employees. In addition to this, another specificity of this study is related to the method used. The fuzzy DEMATEL method is first taken into consideration in a study examining the impact of government policies on the banking sector.
This study consists of five different sections. In this first part of the study, general information about the research topic is shared. In this context, issues such as the importance of banking, risks in banking and the types of policies of governments that affect banks are discussed. In the second part of the study, literature review was made. Within this framework, the studies examining the impact of government policies on the banking sector are summarized. In this process, a selection was made among the studies which were scanned in important indexes and published between 2015-2019. In the third part of the study, fuzzy DEMATEL method used in the analysis process is explained. The purpose of this method, the calculation steps and some studies using this method are mentioned under the related title. On the other hand, the fourth part of the study includes the results of the analysis. In other words, it is shared which government policies are more important for the banking sector than others. In the last part of the study, the strategies produced depending on the analysis results are explained. In addition, this section also provides recommendations for future studies.
⦁ Literature Review
In the literature, the effect of government regulations on the performance of the banking sector has been discussed by many authors. In a significant part of the studies, the effect of the regulations made by the state towards the banking sector on the performance of the sector was emphasized (García-Meca et al., 2015; Psillaki & Mamatzakis, 2017). In this context, the most widely accepted issue in the literature is that this situation decreases the profitability of the banks if it restricts the activities of banks by the regulations of the state. In other words, the size of banks decreases if the government forbids or imposes an upper limit on certain types of loans (Abdrahamane et al., 2017; Ly, 2015). This situation will adversely affect the banking sector.
On the other hand, if these regulations by the state reduce the restrictions on the banking sector, then the generally accepted view is that the performance of the banking sector will increase (Sun et al., 2017; Mergaerts & Vander Vennet, 2016). The main reason behind this is the fact that banks can operate more freely in the market with the reduction of restrictions (Ayadi et al., 2016; Hussein, 2016). For example, if there is no obstacle for banks to use a certain type of credit to customers or to collect certain types of fees and commissions, this will significantly increase the income of banks. On the other hand, some researchers believe that a serious regulation for the banking sector should be made by the state, especially immediately after the financial crisis (Casu et al., 2017; Saerang et al., 2018). According to the aforementioned authors, this situation will play an important role in the rapid recovery of the country’s macroeconomic structure.
Some researchers have also examined the relationship between governmental corporate governance practices and banking performance. Corporate governance can be defined as rules of relations between the board of directors, shareholders and other shareholders involved in the management of a company (Kusuma & Ayumardani, 2016; Bhagat & Bolton, 2019). In this context, effective corporate governance should include factors such as effectiveness, consistency, transparency, fairness, accountability and responsibility. When this issue is considered within the framework of the banking sector, corporate governance is directly related to the fair management and transparency of banks (Love & Rachinsky, 2015). In a more just-managed bank, the motivation of the employees will be high. This will increase the profitability of banks. In this context, De Haan and Vlahu (2016) and Salim et al. (2016) indicated that governments should make some regulations for the fair management of the banks to improve the performance of the industry.
Another important issue for the banking sector within the scope of corporate governance principles is the transparency of banks. Banks are defined as a trust institution where both customers and investors evaluate their savings in the bank (Naushad & Malik, 2015). However, if there is any doubt in the bank, this will cause insecurity to investors. Therefore, it is important for banks to display an honest attitude and to share all necessary information with the public in both their practices and financial statements (Orazalin et al., 2016; Mollah & Zaman, 2015). In this case, a significant number of researchers argue that the state plays an important role. For instance, Chazi et al. (2018) and Tunay and Yüksel (2017) defined that when governments prepare a rule regarding the transparency of the banks, it will attract the attention of the foreign banks to enter the country. Srivastav and Hagendorff (2016) also underlined the importance of this issue by using different methodology.
It is stated in many studies that the tax policies implemented by the government have an impact on the banking sector. Some of the studies have addressed this effect through companies (Olamide et al., 2019; Köster & Pelster, 2017). In other words, companies’ profitability will decrease as the state increases corporate tax. In this case, these companies will be reluctant to make new investments (Aiyar et al., 2015; Fijałkowska et al., 2018). Therefore, the amount of credit used by banks to companies will decrease. Ahmed et al. (2018) and Idowu (2018) made a similar analysis for this situation and reached the same conclusion. Within this framework, a second perspective is aimed at increasing the tax on the direct banking activities of the state (Arora, 2017). For example, if the government imposes an additional tax on a type of loan granted by a bank, the banks will not want to extend it (D’Anselmi, 2018). This will lead to a significant decrease in the profit volume of banks. In this context, Eta and Anabori (2015) tried to analyze the financial sector reforms in Nigeria. They determined that governments should decrease the tax on the banking activities in order to improve this industry.
In addition to the aforementioned studies, in some of the studies, the applications of the governments towards the risk management processes in banking were included in the scope of the study. Banks face many different types of risks, such as credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Banks need to be able to manage these risks effectively in order to have sustainable performance (Fajembola et al., 2018; Bharati & Jia, 2018). However, these risk management measures may adversely affect the sales volume of banks in the short term (Olabamiji & Michael, 2018; Elamer & Benyazid, 2018). Therefore, in some cases, banks may decide not to implement these measures. In this framework, the majority of the studies emphasized that the state should address this issue. For instance, Sheedy and Griffin (2018), Namutenda and Muturi (2017), and Aldayel and Fragouli (2018) identified that government should make necessary regulations related to the risk management of the banks so that it can be possible to improve the performance of the banking industry. Parallel to these studies, Mercylynne and Omagwa (2017), García-Sánchez et al. (2017), and Thabet and Alaeddin (2018) are other studies which underlined the importance of this situation.
As a result of the detailed literature review, it was concluded that the effect of state policies on the banking sector was handled by many researchers. Another result obtained is to emphasize different issues in these studies. For example, while some studies deal with tax rates, risk management regulations have come to the fore in other studies. On the other hand, in some studies, some regulations of the state regarding the banking sector have been examined. In these studies, methods such as questionnaire and regression analysis were generally taken into consideration. As can be understood from this, it is thought that a new study that takes the effect of state policies on the banking sector with a new approach will contribute to the literature.
The Geneva Research Centre of the Battelle Memorial is introduced the method of decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory entitled DEMATEL. The method deals with the complex decision-making problems of real world includes the mutual relation among the factors. It is also employed to measure both the hierarchical and interdependence conditions (Baykasoğlu et al., 2013; Dincer, 2018). The technique is illustrated in the following steps (Uygun et al., 2015; Najafinasab et al., 2015; Yeh & Huang, 2014). Initially, the linguistic evaluations and fuzzy numbers into the scales are defined to evaluate the criteria. The evaluation scales are presented in Table 1.
Regarding the impact and relation map for the governance policies, risk policies (criterion 5) have the highest influences in the criteria while corporate governance (criterion 2) has the most influenced criterion. Additionally, a threshold value is determined by using the average value of the defuzzified matrix. Higher values than the threshold are selected as there is an influence on the criteria. Accordingly, banking regulations (criterion 1) has the influence on the other criteria except risk policies (criterion 5). Criterion 2 has no influence on the other criteria while criterion 5 has a great influence by having the impact on all of governance policy factors.
In this study, the effect of government policies on the banking sector is examined. In this context, first, the kinds of government policies in question have been tried to be determined. For this purpose, the studies published in the literature between 2015-2019 were examined. As a result of this analysis, it was concluded that five different government policies could have an impact on the banking sector. Then, the importance of these five different government policies (banking regulations, corporate governance, tax policies, market competition, risk policies) was determined by the fuzzy DEMATEL method.
According to the results of the analysis, the most important government implementation is the risk policy regarding the banking industry. In addition to the criterion mentioned, corporate governance and market competition are other criteria that have an impact on the banking sector. On the other hand, tax policies and bank regulations are the least important government practices. With respect to the impact and relation map for the governance policies, risk policies have the highest influences in the criteria while corporate governance has the most influenced criterion.
It is identified that the applications of the governments towards the risk management processes are the most important policy type regarding banking industry. Because banking has many different risks, such as credit, market and operational risk, they should be managed effectively in order to have better performance in the industry. In this framework, it is recommended that governments should make necessary regulations for risk management activities of the banks and follow the banks to understand whether they take these actions or not. With the help of this situation, these risks can be managed more effectively. This situation has a positive influence on the performance of the banking industry.
In this study, the impact of government policies on the banking sector is evaluated. By using fuzzy DEMATEL approach, five different government policies related to the banking industry are weighted. In the future studies, according to these weighted government policies, the success of the E7 countries’ governments regarding banking industry can be measured. For this purpose, different methods can be taken into consideration, such as fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy MOORA.
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